More graduates not the answer

One of President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih’s most anticipated campaign pledges was the free education scheme for students pursuing their first degrees in the Maldives. Speaking at the scheme launching ceremony on 14 May 2019, President Solih announced that the scheme would cover fees for students enrolled at all higher education institutions across the country — undeniably a beautiful melody to the ears of ardent students and their indefatigable parents. 

Two years on, there is evidence to support that this pledge has not only been successful but is also a boon to thousands of families across the nation. Data published by the Ministry of Higher Education shows that since the scheme began, a total of 11,466 applications have been received, of which 10,000 applications were approved. As at the end of the first quarter of 2021, a total of 7,173 students are currently enrolled in their first-degree programs. The government spent MVR73.6 million on the scheme in 2019, a whopping MVR132.7 million in 2020, and MVR34.4 million in the first quarter of 2021. 

Is the investment in education worth it?

Multiple published research papers prove the obvious; most of those who go on to complete their tertiary education make, individually and collectively, notable contributions over time. The economics is a key reward of the investment.

As the Bureau of Labor Statistics (US) and the Office for National Statistics (UK) has proven, people with some form of higher education earn more and have a lower probability of unemployment. While the figure varies depending on industry and the job, another commonality among graduates is that on average, they are able to add significantly to their earnings over a lifetime, compared to those without a tertiary education. 

The education sector also flourishes. Statistics from the Ministry of Higher Education show that a total of MVR240.7 million has been spent on the 7,173 students enrolled so far – these millions have been fed into the local economy via the nation’s educational institutions and thus should yield positive multiplier effects. 

More will enter the labour market year on year; educated workers who, theoretically speaking, should be better qualified and technically more capable, striving and contributing towards the growth of not only themselves but also the nation. In fact, President Solih has stated that the main purpose of this scheme is to create ‘educated, qualified individuals’ for the country. 

The reality

So, what is the reality in the Maldives? It is a fair assumption that the labour market is experiencing a bottle neck caused by an influx of graduates. The Ministry of Higher Education’s statistics show that 26 areas for development were identified by their training need analysis — and graduates have surpassed the required number already. With this excess, and the ongoing expansion of the education scheme, the number of graduates has outgrown what can be absorbed by the job market. This phenomenon is not solely limited to the Maldives.

This is also the case with two of the world’s leading economies – China and India. Similar to the Maldives’ revolution in higher education, both India and China experienced this boom which led to young people completing university degrees rising from a few hundred thousand a year to many millions over the recent past. Overall, irrespective of geography, outcomes are similar — an alarming rise in the number of unemployed and under employed graduates. 

The situation of unemployment among graduates in India is now described as the ‘timepass generation’. Craig Jeffrey, Professor of Development Geography at Oxford University, and an expert on India's unemployed youth issue, describes a generation of bored young graduates, for whom "waiting has become a profession." Another such phenomenon arising from this situation is called the Ant tribe - an army of under-employed or underpaid graduates unable to fulfil their ambitions. The question is, where is the Maldives at? Does the nation have a ‘timepass generation’? Or is it more of an Ant Tribe?

What is being done?

In 2015, UK's Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development (CIPD) said that ‘the assumption that we will transition to a more productive, higher value, higher skilled economy just by increasing the conveyor belt of graduates is proven to be flawed. Simply increasing the qualification level of individuals going into a job does not typically result in the skill required to do the job being enhanced – in many cases that skills premium, if it exists at all, is simply wasted.”

The message is clear – more graduates is not the solution to preparing people for work. Then, what can be done to address the impact of the influx of graduates? 

Within the same year, CIPD urged the UK government to launch a large-scale review of the education system. The premise is that there may be more cost-effective ways of preparing young people for the labour market than sending them to university.

As over-qualification was at a saturation point, CIPD recommended that the government focus on creating more high-skilled jobs for the graduates. It also advocated that employers review their recruitment processes to ensure that they are not using a requirement for a degree as a screening process, especially for non-graduate jobs. The intention is to examine the candidates in a more well-rounded manner. Another proposal which has been put forth by experts is the acquisition of work skills. A popular addition to degree programmes now is to mandate work-related training or work-based learning such as through internships, mentorships, or career competitions 

In the UK, schools are also encouraging students completing their GCSE and A-level to enter apprenticeship programmes rather than join tertiary education right away. This offers students the opportunity to gain accredited work-based learning and build their skill portfolio prior to building their knowledge through degree programmes.

China is also experiencing this change. Due to the high number of unemployed graduates and the fear of high migration among them, China’s Education Ministry has already indicated that it wants to turn 600 universities into polytechnics, providing more technical and employment-related courses, rather than academic and theoretical subjects.

Moving Forward

There are lessons to be learnt from many countries. 

The Ministry of Higher Education needs to conduct an impact analysis. It is crucial as a nation to study whether the scheme is delivering the desired returns not only for graduates, but also for organisations, and society. In addition, a study on the graduates who are employed and are also seeking work is necessary. This is because the social, economic and political implications of "idling" graduates are sure to be wide and varied. 

President Solih is right. For economic prosperity, a country needs people with skills and education. At the same time, the graduates themselves need an avenue through education into decent, well-paid, secure employment. However, the truth is the nation currently does not have an education and training system that provides those avenues into good employment for enough people.

Higher levels of education across a broader section of society will undoubtedly help to increase the levels of societal participation and rid social ills. However, the path for that is not only higher education through universities. Whether people are learning in a higher education institution or as apprentices in a vocational apprenticeship scheme, the benefits to society are huge. 

When it comes to education, the nation’s heart is in the right place but there is a need to align the heart with the mind’s eye. Education and skill without a venue to apply them will be a waste of resources, time and human potential. The system needs a course correction; and it needs it now.