Is the pandemic ending?

Two years since COVID-19 brought the world to a standstill, the landscape has changed considerably. The world today is seeing a drastic improvement in managing the pandemic since the first case was identified – with lower infection rates and hospitalizations, a reduction in the number of deaths, and with the ease in restrictions implemented the world over, it all hints towards the possible beginning of the end for COVID-19.

What does history tell us?

According to Professor Erica Charters of the University of Oxford, the ends of epidemics are not as thoroughly researched as their beginnings. Speaking to the Associate Press (AP) in March of 2022, Charters said that the end of pandemics is a long, drawn out process with different types of endings. She further explained that it has:

Before COVID-19, influenza was considered the deadliest pandemic agent. Yet, in each of its outbreaks, the pandemics waned as time passed and the general population-built immunity, and became the seasonal flu of subsequent years. Experts believe that this is the kind of pattern that the novel coronavirus will probably follow. As Matthew Ferrari, Director of Penn State’s Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics in the Untied States stated, “it becomes normal.”

What is the WHO saying?

According to a Reuters report on 25 January, the World Health Organization (WHO) has cautioned that it is dangerous to assume Omicron will be the last COVID-19 variant and warned against assuming the pandemic is reaching its 'end game.' Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, Director-General of the WHO made this statement at a WHO executive board meeting. He further added that global conditions are ideal for more variants to emerge. 

Conversely, on 11 February, Aljazeera reported on WHO's claim that the acute phase of the pandemic could end this year, if about 70 percent of the world gets vaccinated. During a visit to Afrigen Biologics and Vaccines, which has produced the first mRNA Covid vaccine made in Africa using Moderna’s sequence, Tedros said that "if that is to be done, the acute phase can really end, and that is what we are expecting. It’s in our hands. It’s not a matter of chance. It’s a matter of choice.”

What is happening around the world?

The Chief Executive Officer of Moderna Stephane Bancel has said that it is ‘reasonable’ to believe the pandemic may be in its final stages and becoming endemic. Speaking to CNBC in February 2022, Bancel said that there is an 80 percent chance that as Omicron evolves or the SarsCov-2 virus evolves, the world will see less and less virulent viruses. However, he also spoke of another  scenario where there was a 20 percent probability of a mutation being more contagious than Omicron.

Some governments have concluded that the total societal costs of lockdowns, restrictions on businesses, and masking, outweigh the benefits at this phase of the pandemic, while other governments are maintaining or strengthening public-health policies, including vaccine mandates. Many workplaces remain relatively cautious in their policies and approaches. Hoever, the overall public-health responses to Omicron have typically been less forceful than those for prior waves with similar disease burdens. 

For example, January saw the UK Government easing social care restrictions after booster dose successes. From 31 January, there was no limit on the number of visitors allowed into care homes and self-isolation periods have been made shorter, and since 16 February, care workers have been using rapid lateral flow tests before their shifts in place of weekly asymptomatic PCR tests. In the Netherlands, the rules for sports, artistic and cultural activities, contact-based industries, shops, and education have been relaxed from 15 January, although tighter rules on the use of face masks are still in place, with restaurants, bar and cafés, museums and cinemas remaining closed.

Vaccination, augmented with booster shots, have been shown to be especially important in protection. Countries where a significant portion of those at risk had received three doses of a COVID-19 vaccine saw hospitalizations substantially decouple from cases. This meant that many European countries had a higher rate of infections but fewer hospitalizations during this wave compared to previous ones. On the other hand, locations with a lower vaccine coverage, including parts of the United States, set all-time records for hospitalization and deaths. Reports also indicate that similar to previous waves, lower-income countries and those with younger populations were somewhat protected, even though inequalities in global vaccine access have meant that few there have received three doses, and most have not yet received a single dose.

Today, the link between cases and behavioral adjustments is largely broken. On 1 March, McKinsey & Company reported that data indicates more and more people have concluded that the health risks of Covid-19 are not significant enough for behavioral change, either because of their vaccination status, their youth, or a desire to move on from the pandemic.

What about in the Maldives?

The Maldivian Government has also eased COVID-19 restrictions, announcing in late February that PCR testing will not be required for arrivals into the Maldives for passengers who have completed the full dose of a COVID-19 vaccine, as well as PCR tests prior to departure for tourists staying in guesthouses. President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih on 13 March announced the revocation of the Public Health Emergency declared in the country on 12 March 2020. Subsequently, significant changes were also announced further lifting the remaining precautionary measures, which include:

The Heath Protection Agency (HPA) accounts for the ease in restrictions given improvements in the COVID-19 situation in many parts of the country, with low hospitalizations and deaths, and the large percentage of the population completing two doses of a COVID-19 vaccine, as well as increasing booster dose rates. 

Is it really ending?

By and large, the six-month outlook in many countries is brighter than at any time over the past two years. However, several uncertainties could temper the optimism, starting with the duration of immunity. Evidence suggests that both natural and vaccine-induced immunity wane over time, even in communities that has achieved herd immunity. 

The highly transmissible nature of the Delta variant, ongoing vaccine hesitancy, and incomplete protection against transmission by current public health measures mean that a goal of “zero COVID-19” is very likely unachievable without continued stringent public-health measures. Most communities, including the United Kingdom, the United States, and much of Europe, will need to learn to live with COVID -19, at least over the medium term. 

Ultimately, experts say what is more difficult to estimate is when a new variant of SARS-CoV-2 will emerge. It could be a mere couple of days, or a few weeks or even years from now. However, they all agree that with the history of the virus’s extraordinary progression of four strains in two years, it makes it dangerous to plan on a “no new variant” scenario at the moment.