Flamingoes in the Maldives; a harbinger

Global warming is not only observed through temperature differences year by year, nor is it only measurable with the amount of ice that melts and does not refreeze at the poles. Ice-core studies have shown how these are the hottest years on record since the industrial revolution, and the increase does not seem to be abating.

The increase in greenhouse gases, such as those released by industry, petrol powered vehicles, irresponsible garbage disposal, as well as mass production livestock farms, have been trapping more and more heat in the atmosphere, year on year. Yet the signal that should really alert everyone, including those not well-versed in climate science, should be the way even nature changes and adapts to this increase in temperature. Nature responds in the form of changes in animal migration patterns. 

Since 2015, scientists have been observing how certain migratory birds and oceanic wildlife, as well as those species endemic to the polar regions, have been adjusting their migration schedules and patterns. Animals migrate from one region to the other in response to the changing seasons; in the summer for the northern hemisphere, they would propagate in the northern regions, and then move towards warmer climes as the season changes to winter. Each species is driven by different needs, including the need to breed, find new food sources, and even to complete short life cycles. One such species that Maldivians would be very familiar with would be dragonflies.

They show up on Maldivian shores roughly during November and December, and their 14,000-18,000 kilometre long journey takes them all the way to Africa before returning to India. Their flight is guided by the increased rainfall that swoops from east to west, flying at altitudes of almost a 1,000 metres to their next location. They lay their eggs in freshwater puddles, during this 3-4 generation trip, and has become a playful part in the Maldivian culture when they pass through. However, their patterns have been changing, nominally so, arriving a lot earlier than they previously did.

These subtle changes reverberate immensely throughout the natural world. The natural predators of these animals have to adjust to their changing migratory patterns as well, disrupting the food chain in the process. The changing weather patterns play a part, but scientists have now pinpointed that there are multiple other factors at play as well. Ocean acidity levels (due to pollution as well as increased CO2 absorption by the seas), changes in sea water temperatures, and flukes in ocean currents due to the increase in polar ice melting, are all interconnected. With 2020 having the highest levels of greenhouse gases in recorded history, this is not surprising.

What is surprising is that this steep rise to 413.2 parts per million CO2 happened during the pandemic year, where working from home and decreases in human movement across borders, was the norm. There was a recorded drop of 5.6 percent in emissions due to the COVID-19 restrictions, yet as the world returned to normal, industry pushed the limits two-fold.

This year, the Maldives received a gentle reminder of this very harsh reality in the form of the Greater Flamingo.

As they were sighted in natural freshwater marshes present in some of the larger islands, the people reacted with both joy and novelty. While a few enterprising individuals committed the heinous crimes of capturing, cutting wing feathers, and attempted sales of this protected bird, public attention veered away from the major reason behind the infrequent visitations of these majestic birds.

Travelling through the West Indies, Florida, all the way to India and Iran, the greater flamingo moves in response to colder weather patters in search of warmer environments. While there aren’t enough studies done specifically on why these birds have shown up in the years 2007-8, 2012, 2015, and 2021, there are some lines that can be drawn between other climate phenomena. Given how their journeys directly reflect the changes in atmospheric temperature and also the availability of more salty, marshy environments in the Maldives in the middle of the Indian Ocean migratory route, a certain recurring weather phenomena could be assumed to have a distant correlation.

The El Niño and La Niña phenomena, which is, at their most simplest, a cold and warm weather fluctuation event in the Pacific Ocean, causes weather patterns across the world. The colder fluctuation, La Niña, can be seen to coincide with the timings of these bird’s sightings, although the findings are not substantial enough to know for sure. 

However, the fluctuations are dependent on differences in the average oceanic temperatures, with a 1 degree minimum contrast needed to set off the phenomena in either direction. One of the most intense El Niño incidents in the past two decades had raised water temperatures so much it had created a massive coral bleaching event, some reefs dying beyond any hope of recovery, due to the high sea temperatures that assimilated across the world. This happens because every corner of the planet is connected with air currents and ocean currents, carrying colder water and air from cooler regions to the warmer regions, which results in the periodic cyclones of each region, including the most recent one that battered the Indian Ocean last week.

The science behind weather patterns requires a little bit of reading for one to catch up with, but the fact the Flamingos showed up indicates that these fluctuations are increasing, and are also unpredictable. Higher than usual annual temperatures get carried over to the next year or two in the form of permanently distorted weather patterns, and also changes in migration patterns, the crux of this article’s argument. The worst thing about changing migrations goes beyond the novelty of large, pink birds, and to something that affects humans directly.

Pests and disease carrying insects as well as crucial pollinators for agriculture, are moving around too fast for the people to respond. Mosquitoes have been shifting to regions where the people have less than optimum immunity for the diseases they bring with them. Some animals shift their movements over 17 to 74 kilometres each decade, changing up the natural ecosystems at rates faster than nature can cope. Scientists believe there would be some ‘winners’ and some ‘losers,' in terms of some species gaining the upper hand in their newer environments, while others die out.

The polewards shifts in movement affect plants as well, with crops like coffee being shifted to areas of cooler temperatures. This line alone underscores the effect on both the economy, the changes in production costs, and the effects on land availability and other related industries. In some regions of Africa, mosquito migration has caused losses in livestock due to their lack of natural immunity, as well loss of human life due to diseases such as malaria and dengue.

The world is connected so much so that the flutter of a butterfly’s wings could cause a hurricane on the other side of the world, metaphorically speaking. The chaos of climate change is directly related, and proven as much, to the human influence on the atmosphere and the ecosystems. The decades of climate change protests have had little to no effect on the behemoths of industry, and the world that is left for the coming generations is imagined to be entirely new, unsustainable, and close to the midnight strike of the doomsday clock.

If in doubt, watch the birds and the bees, and observe how they fly differently each year.