The rise and fall of the Assad regime - what is next for Syria?

The Assad family are not only popular for their brutality when it comes to ruling Syria, but their family is also known as the longest-standing ruler in the country - spanning a rule of over five decades.

Reuters

Reuters

While debates around the Israel-Palestine conflict often hinge on its perceived complexity or simplicity, Syria presents a far more tangled narrative. Home to one of the largest refugee populations globally, the country has faced relentless challenges in governance and survival. Much of Syria's tumultuous journey can be traced back to the decisions, policies, and pathways forged by a single ruling family: the Assads. Over decades, their grip on power shaped not just the nation’s political landscape but also the trajectory of its devastating civil conflict, leaving a legacy that continues to reverberate both domestically and internationally.

The Assad family are not only popular for their brutality when it comes to ruling Syria, but their family is also known as the longest-standing ruler in the country. Spanning over five decades, the Assad family recently met its downfall in December 2024 as the regime collapsed after a rapid series of events which were marked by military advances from opposition forces. While some call these forces freedom fighters, others have marked the opposition forces as rebels. But how did the Assad family rise to power and what led to their final downfall?

The Assad family initially came into power in the 90s, when Hafez al-Assad orchestrated a bloodless coup. The coup was conducted during a time when Syria was grappling with political instability, which led to Hafez relying on the divide-and-rule tactic of exploiting the different ethnic religious and political divisions that are present in Syria. Hafez built up a system of ruling with an iron fist, which was evidently passed down in the family line as Bashar al-Assad succeeded his father following Hafez’s death in 2000.

Following decades of oppression, Syrians welcomed the new era with some optimism as Bashar al-Assad was a doctor before he turned into a dictator. The famous words ‘It’s your turn doctor’ written on the walls of Syria are still a grave reminder of the years that followed under his rule. While Syrians had hoped that a doctor would have more compassion and understanding to become a better leader, much to the country’s dismay, Assad’s rule proved to be just as challenging - which led to the onset of the Syrian civil war being triggered in 2011. As civilians clung to hopes for a better future, pro-democracy protests erupted in Syria in 2011, inspired by the broader wave of the Arab Spring sweeping across the region. 

These peaceful demonstrations initially called for political reforms and greater freedoms under President Bashar al-Assad's regime. However, the government’s brutal crackdown on protesters escalated tensions, igniting a nationwide conflict that spiralled into a full-blown civil war. This war has since devastated the country, displacing millions and leading to one of the most severe humanitarian crises in modern history.

While the regime managed to retain power through brutal crackdowns and substantial support from allies like Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah, it was unable to fully suppress opposition forces. The war caused immense devastation, leading to over half a million deaths and the displacement of millions of Syrians.

Unknown to a majority of the world, the Assad regime’s downfall was in the works in late 2024 due to a convergence of factors that proved insurmountable. With the continuous call for democracy being ignored and the brutality showcased to Syrian people, rebel forces composed of various factions achieved what was unthinkable to many. In late 2024, the force achieved significant military advances which led to the capturing of key territories including Damascus. As Syrians all around the world watched the first time opposition forces took control of the capital city since the start of the civil war, many across the globe and in Syria took to the streets to celebrate freedom from the brutal Assad regime.

As the opposition forces freed hundreds of civilians who were brutally locked up for years during the Assad regime, the ruler himself was rumoured to have fled to Russia for his safety. Rebel leaders have since declared the beginning of a new era in Syria, though the fragmented nature of the opposition and the country’s deep-rooted instability pose significant challenges to long-term peace and reconstruction. 

Although this is a new dawn for Syria as the country celebrated its freedom from the regime, a new fear awaits as just hours after its freedom Israeli forces invaded the country for the first time in over 50 years, with reports stating that IOF has already conducted dozens of air strikes in the country in an effort to weaken the military presence in Syria. While Israeli FM states that the presence of Israeli forces in Syria is temporary, the country continues to invade and commit genocide in Palestine while bombing both Lebanon and Syria at the same time - leaving many questioning just how temporary their presence in Syria is going to be.

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